Setka Cup Predictions

A transparent Elo model for Setka Cup table tennis (Ukraine) · updated 10 h ago

Setka Cup Czech Liga Pro TT Elite Series TT Cup Setka Cup Women Challenger Series

Model Track RecordCalibration: Good

Walk-forward · last 11.087 graded predictions

55.5%Pick Accuracy

0.244Brier Score

0.681Log Loss

★ Featured Match▮▮▮ High Confidence

23 Jun · 04:35 UTCTip: Hryban

🇺🇦Vadym Hryban

ELO 1645

FormWLWWW

71%AI Win ChanceStrong Favorite · Hryban

🇺🇦Vasily Verbyany

ELO 1419

FormLWLWL

71%

29%

Expected WinnerHryban

Elo Advantage+226

ConfidenceElite

Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~75 pts

3-1

27%

3-0

23%

3-2

21%

2-3

13%

1-3

10%

Why this pick? · 3 reasons

✓Higher Elo rating (+226)
✓Better recent form (4-1)
✓Winning head-to-head (9-7)

Full prediction page →

Recent Results

Every prediction scored against the real result — nothing hidden.

53%

106 of last 200

Nazar Kovalchuk vs Orest Hura

Anatolii Lievshin vs Maksym Mrykh

Mykyta Fomin vs Danylo Us

Oleksandr Storozhenko vs Yaroslav Tebenko

23 Jun · 00:30 UTC

pick Storozhenko 58%

3-2

Oleksandr Naida vs Dmytro Derevynskyi

23 Jun · 00:25 UTC

pick Derevynskyi 63%

3-1

Valerii Vlasenko vs Ruslan Lazebny

Volodymir Maksuta vs Andrii Droshchynskyi

Serhii Chuliukov vs Dmitriy Kim

23 Jun · 00:05 UTC

pick Kim 51%

1-3

Volodymyr Korobko vs Oleksii Rodin

23 Jun · 00:00 UTC

pick Rodin 65%

3-0

Oleksandr Melashenko vs Vitalii Khamurda

22 Jun · 23:53 UTC

pick Khamurda 58%

3-2

Orest Hura vs Serhii Kalenyk

22 Jun · 23:45 UTC

pick Hura 56%

1-3

Maksym Mrykh vs Yaroslav Makovka

22 Jun · 23:40 UTC

pick Mrykh 51%

2-3

Hryhorii Kulishov vs Mykyta Fomin

Yaroslav Tebenko vs Yurii Parahailo

22 Jun · 23:30 UTC

pick Parahailo 53%

1-3

Dmytro Derevynskyi vs Kostiantyn Hrynenko

Nazar Kovalchuk vs Mykyta Smyrnov

Anatolii Lievshin vs Yevhenii Holoborodko

22 Jun · 23:10 UTC

pick Lievshin 61%

3-1

Dmitriy Kim vs Andrii Peretiatko

Oleksandr Storozhenko vs Denys Maltsev

Oleksandr Naida vs Spartak Abalmaz

22 Jun · 22:55 UTC

pick Abalmaz 64%

1-3

Accuracy Over Time

Stable numbers across windows mean the model isn't drifting. Sample size shown so equal rates aren't misread.

Last 7 days

56.4%

n = 2.079Brier 0.242

Last 30 days

55.9%

n = 8.892Brier 0.243

All time

55.5%

n = 11.087Brier 0.244

Calibration

Predicted vs actual win rate per band — close numbers mean the probabilities are honest.

BandExpectedActualn

50–55%52.7%52.0%5623

55–60%57.2%56.0%3542

60–65%62.1%60.5%1350

65%+68.9%74.3%572

Reliability

On the diagonal = honest. Above it = the model was too cautious, below = overconfident.

Prediction Distribution

Where today's win probabilities land — the model stays honest, not overconfident.

50–55%

34%

55–60%

34%

60–65%

22%

65%+

10%

Elo Leaderboard

The strongest Setka Cup players by live Elo rating.

Serhii Ponomarenko

WWWWL

85M1830

Oleksandr Dukhovenko

LWWWL

95M1731

Maksym Baday

WWWLW

80M1720

Oleksandr Zhurba

LLWWW

68M1684

Vitalii Kaganovych

WWWLL

45M1672

Ruslan Haiseniuk

WWWWW

90M1668

Tomas Hanke

WLLWW

52M1653

Ivan Fedoryshyn

WWWWL

85M1651

Oleksandr Ovsiienko

WWWLW

74M1650

Alexander Tuzhylin

WWLWW

68M1648

Oleksandr Osadchyi

WWWWW

95M1646

Vadym Hryban

WLWWW

80M1645

Oleksandr Ivchuk

WWWWW

69M1639

Oleksii Hrymovskyi

WLWWW

115M1639

Oleh Bindas

WWLWW

50M1628

Andrii Lushchyk

LWLWW

78M1624

Oleksii Rodin

LWLLW

73M1616

Ondrej Mezera

WWWLW

67M1614

Volodymir Maksuta

WWWWL

43M1612

Andrii Zeniuk

LLWWW

85M1611

Confidence tiersElite65%+High60–65%Medium55–60%Low<55%· win probability of the favourite

How it works. An Elo model trained on real Setka Cup results estimates each player's strength; the win probability follows from the rating gap, temperature-calibrated against past outcomes. No market odds, no value claims — just transparent model output and its measured accuracy.

12.372 matches · 525 players tracked since 15 May 2026.

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